By exploitation of improved observational records delivered across different Copernicus Services, CONFESS will improve the C3S capabilities for monitoring and predicting extreme events and produce reliable climate trends, it will increase the relevance of the services to represent hazardous events and their impact, and it will prepare the ground for rapid uptake of new observations. This will be achieved by enabling a consistent representation of the temporal variability of chemical and biological elements of land surface state and atmospheric composition in future C3S reanalyses and seasonal forecasting systems, by taking stock of the latest harmonized data sets and further inclusion of prognostic models for these new earth system components.
CONFESS strategic objectives are:

  1. Representation, for the first time, of temporal variations of land cover and vegetation in C3S systems by exploiting state of the art Copernicus observational datasets
  2. Improved temporal representation of tropospheric aerosols by harmonization of CMIP6 and CAMS datasets.
  3. Increased prognostic capabilities by inclusion of prognostic vegetation and new capabilities for response to volcanic and biomass burning emissions.

To achieve these goals, CONFESS has set the following specific objectives:

Variations in Land Cover

Faithful representation of temporal variations of land cover in the next generation of C3S climate reanalyses (ERA6 and beyond) and seasonal forecasts and reforecasts.

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Variations in Vegetation

Faithful representation of temporal variations of vegetation in the next generation of C3S reanalyses (ERA6 and beyond) and seasonal forecast and reforecast.

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Closing the Gap

Close the gap in modelling land-vegetation processes for short-term prediction by implementing prognostic vegetation models that can be used in seasonal forecast and future reanalyses system (beyond ERA6)

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