Implement the capability to respond to large emissions for biomass burning in C3S monitoring and prediction systems.
→ Increasing resilience of C3S monitoring and forecasting systems, enhancing the interoperability of operational Copernicus Services.
→ Preparing the ground for inclusion of vegetation-fires feedback.
- Develop a simplified prognostic scheme for biomass burning evolution in the IFS based on existing CAMS capabilities.
- Create a climatology of observed biomass burning emissions from the CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS).
- Test the new biomass burning capability in seasonal forecasts using climatological emissions.
- Test the new biomass burning capability in seasonal forecast mode using observed emissions for a specific number of cases, including 2019 Australian fires, 2019 Amazon Fires and 2018 Californian fires.
- Explore the potential gains for inclusion of an empirical model for biomass emissions in seasonal forecasts.
Addressed in work packages: WP2