Respond to volcanic eruptions

Implement the capability to respond to large volcanic eruptions in the C3S monitoring and prediction systems.

→ Increased resilience of C3S monitoring and forecasting systems, enhancing the interoperability of operational Copernicus Services.

Achieved by:

  • Implement vertically resolved volcanic aerosols forcing in the IFS by adapting the Full Volcanic Forcing (FVF), with a vertical distribution fully consistent with CMIP6 forcing.
  • Validate the FVF by comparison of low resolution, coupled simulations to assess the response to Pinatubo and other recent events performed with IFS and EC-Earth, and verified against ERA5.
  • Develop a prediction tool for volcanic aerosol, able to generate input files for seasonal forecast models, based on the recently enhanced emulator of volcanic aerosols radiative forcing EVA_H (Aubrey et al 2019) and using CAMS and/or SENTINAL-5P products as input for real-time initialization.
  • Test and validate the volcanic aerosols prediction tool with multi-year simulations for various past volcanic eruptions cases.
  • Assess the impact of the FVF and volcanic aerosols prediction system on seasonal forecasts.

Addressed in work packages: WP2 and WP3