Impact on quality of climate services in relation with downstream user needs

The work proposed here will deliver developments with sufficient maturity to be implemented in the upcoming C3S earth system reanalyses and seasonal forecasting systems (STAGE 1 and 2 above). The consistent temporal variations of land, vegetation and tropospheric aerosols should enhance the accuracy of the C3S monitoring and prediction of global trends and regional extremes, in line with the growing demands for best quality climate information of a climate resilient society. In particular, it is expected that these developments will improve the initialization, calculation, verification and calibration of seasonal forecasts. This will enhance the reliability of a wide range of user-relevant variables, and support further developments of hydrological, marine and emergency services, as well as a vast range of economic sectors – renewable energy, health, agriculture, water management. STAGE 2 will also deliver the capability for response to large volcanic eruptions, which will ultimately increase the resilience of the C3S services.

The final stage of CONFESS will deliver developments to pave the way for longer term evolution of C3S, namely interactive vegetation and response to large biomass burning events. These will enable the delivery by C3S of an increased number of user relevant climate and environmental variables, such as vegetation indices, air pollution or fires. It will also allow C3S to respond promptly to societal demands for information on climate attribution and regional impact of catastrophic fires. Most importantly, they are first steps for the inclusion of feedbacks between vegetation, land conditions, fire emissions and regional climate, an essential link for enabling climate resilient society. Ultimately, these developments will pave the path for C3S uptake of more and new Earth Observations, which will further improve the range and quality of the C3S information in support of mitigation and adaptation actions by policy makers and businesses.